Local prospect theory (LPT) proposes that consciousness relies on uncertainty, not just accurate prediction. The brain creates a "local prospect"—a range of possible futures shaped by subjective experience—from which an agent freely chooses how to respond. Consciousness is a self-sustaining loop of neural activity that forms a temporary working memory, allowing thoughts and feelings from different brain modules to interact non-linearly, unlike automatic unconscious processes. Entropy-based measures, such as the determination of actions by conditions and the breadth of prospect, quantify the range of considered possibilities. The framework explains Buddhist mindfulness and meditation as broadening consciousness and reducing automatic reactions by lessening conditioning. The prospect measure could be operationalized through action variety, perception breadth, and behavioral unpredictability for empirical testing.
Subjective experience functions as a mechanism guiding organisms toward beneficial outcomes. In simple animals, this guidance produces fitness-enhancing responses. Human consciousness offers a range of potential developments allowing free choice, modeled as a local prospect: a field of possibilities centered on the present situation and colored by valence. Building on neural models of global workspace and adaptive resonance, the theory suggests such a prospect could be implemented in the brain as a halo of activation diffusing from, and feeding back into, a core of circulating activation. Using qualia inversion, the theory argues it solves the 'hard problem of consciousness' and explains key characteristics like subjectivity, feeling, free will, agency, transience, continuity, integration, selectivity, intentionality, and 'what it is like'.