Why Uncertainty is Essential for Consciousness: Local Prospect Theory vs. Predictive Processing

Abstract

We present and develop Local Prospect Theory (LPT) as a novel framework for understanding consciousness, and in particular subjective experience and free will. While Predictive Processing (PP) theories model the brain as minimizing uncertainty, LPT sees uncertainty as an essential feature of conscious decision making. This is achieved by creating a "local prospect"—a range of potential developments that allows an agent to consider and choose based on probabilities and subjective values rather than precise predictions. Drawing on Global Workspace Theory, LPT conceptualizes consciousness as a self-maintaining process of circulating neural activation, creating a temporary working memory where thoughts and feelings coming from different brain modules enter into an asynchronous, non-linear interaction. This contrasts with unconscious, feedforward processes, which operate automatically and deterministically. LPT proposes entropy-based measures, including determination of actions by conditions and breadth of prospect, to quantify the range of potential developments considered. This framework allows us to understand Buddhist practices like mindfulness and meditation, which broaden consciousness and deautomatize reactions by reducing the influence of conditioning. The proposed prospect measure may be operationalized by indicators such as variety of action, breadth of perception and behavioral unpredictability, thus allowing empirical testing of the theory.