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Lucius Caviola

2 papers in the library · publishing 2025

Papers

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Futures with Digital Minds: Expert Forecasts in 2025

arXiv Preprint Archive August 1, 2025 Lucius Caviola, Bradford Saad

This report presents findings from an expert survey on digital minds takeoff scenarios. The survey was conducted in early 2025 with 67 experts in digital minds research, AI research, philosophy, forecasting, and related fields. Participants provided probabilistic forecasts and qualitative reasoning on the development, characteristics, and societal impact of digital minds, that is, computer...

AI Consciousness Will Divide Society

Lucius Caviola preprint

As AI systems become increasingly advanced and human-like, societies will face a fundamental question: are these systems conscious, and if so, do they deserve moral or legal rights? This chapter argues that rather than converging on a shared answer, society is likely to enter a period of confusion, uncertainty, and deep disagreement. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, it shows that both...