Consciousness of the Future as a Matrix of Maybe: Pragmatic Prospection and the Simulation of Alternative Possibilities
Roy F. Baumeister, Heather M. Maranges, Hallgeir Sjåstad
Psychology of Consciousness January 29, 2018 DOI: 10.1037/cns0000154 (opens in new tab)
Study at a glance
AI-extracted from the abstract| Characteristics | Theoretical or philosophical paper Peer reviewed |
|---|---|
| Key points | Argues that prospection is less about predicting what is sure to happen than about preparing for action within a 'matrix of maybe' of incompatible alternative possibilities. The authors review evidence that people see the future as highly changeable, that planning aims to bring about one outcome over alternatives, that optimism may be an initial automatic response later tempered by awareness of obstacles, that people moralize the future more than the past, and that anticipated emotion helps evaluate possible outcomes. |
Abstract
Thinking about the future highlights the constructive nature of consciousness, as opposed to merely representing what is there—because the future is not yet available to be seen. We elaborate this point to emphasize how consciousness deals in alternative possibilities, and indeed preconscious interpretation confers meaning by recognizing these alternatives. Crucially, the goal of prospection is less to predict what is sure to happen than to prepare for action in situations defined by sets of incompatible alternative options, each of which might or might not come true. We review multiple lines of evidence indicating that people conceptualize the future as just such a matrix of maybe. Thus, people think of the future as highly changeable. Most prospective thinking involves planning, which is designed to bring about one outcome rather than alternatives. Optimism may often reflect an initial, automatic response that is soon followed by conscious appreciation of obstacles and other factors that can produce less desired, alternative outcomes. People moralize the future more than the past, presumably to promote the more desirable outcomes. Anticipated emotion helps people evaluate future possible outcomes. People specifically anticipate the matrix of maybe and sometimes seek to preserve multiplicity of options. We integrate these patterns of findings with a pragmatic theory of prospection: Thinking of the future as a multimaybe matrix is useful for guiding action.