Behind the heterogeneity in the long-term course of first-episode psychosis: Different psychotic symptom trajectories are associated with different patterns of cannabis and stimulant use.

Background: Data-driven classification of long-term psychotic symptom trajectories and identification of associated risk factors could assist treatment planning and improve long-term outcomes in psychosis. However, few studies have used this approach, and knowledge about underlying mechanisms is limited. Here, we identify long-term psychotic symptom trajectories and investigate the role of illness-concurrent cannabis and stimulant use.

Methods: 192 participants with first-episode psychosis were followed up after 10 years. Psychotic symptom trajectories were estimated using growth mixture modeling and tested for associations with baseline characteristics and cannabis and stimulant use during the follow-up (FU) period.

Results: Four trajectories emerged: (1) Stable Psychotic Remission (54.2 %), (2) Delayed Psychotic Remission (15.6 %), (3) Psychotic Relapse (7.8 %), (4) Persistent Psychotic Symptoms (22.4 %). At baseline, all unfavorable trajectories (2-4) were characterized by more schizophrenia diagnoses, higher symptom severity, and longer duration of untreated psychosis. Compared to the Stable Psychotic Remission trajectory, unstable trajectories (2,3) showed distinct associations with cannabis/stimulant use during the FU-period, with dose-dependent effects for cannabis but not stimulants (Delayed Psychotic Remission: higher rates of frequent cannabis and stimulant use during the first 5 FU-years; Psychotic Relapse: higher rates of sporadic stimulant use throughout the entire FU-period). The Persistent Psychosis trajectory was less clearly linked to substance use during the FU-period.

Conclusions: The risk for an adverse long-term course could be mitigated by treatment of substance use, where particular attention should be devoted to preventing the use of stimulants while the use reduction of cannabis may already yield positive effects.