The maharishi effect: A model for social improvement. Time series analysis of a phase transition to reduced crime in merseyside metropolitan area
Guy D. Hatchard, Ashley J. Deans, Kenneth L. Cavanaugh, David W. Orme-Johnson
Psychology Crime and Law July 1, 1996 DOI: 10.1080/10683169608409775 (opens in new tab)
Study at a glance
AI-extracted from the abstract| Characteristics | Time series analysis Peer reviewed |
|---|---|
| Population | Merseyside, England, monthly crime data and Transcendental Meditation/TM-Sidhi group size, 1978-1991 |
| Intervention | Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi programme |
| Duration | 1978 to 1991, with crime data through 1992 |
| Citations | 18 |
| Key points | The authors report that a phase transition occurred in March 1988 when the meditation group first exceeded the square root of 1% of the population, followed by a 13.4% drop in crime; crime then stayed steady through 1992 while national crime rose 45%. They estimate 255,000 fewer crimes than expected and argue demographic, economic, and policing factors cannot account for the change. |
Abstract
Time series analysis was used to test the hypothesis that Merseyside crime rate was reduced by a group practising Maharishi Mahesh Yogi's Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi programme. Previous research suggests that a phase transition to increased orderliness u evidenced by reduced crime rate should occur when the group size approaches the square root of 1% of the total population. Analysis of Merseyside monthly crime data and coherence group size from 1978 to 1991 shows that a phase transition occurred during March 1988 with a 13.4% drop in crime when the group size first exceeded the √1 % or Maharishi Effect threshold (p < 0.00006). Up to 1992, Merseyside crime rate has remained steady in contrast to the national crime rate which has increased by 45%. In 1987 Merseyside had the third highest rime rate of the eleven largest Metropolitan Areas in England and Wales; by 1992 it had the lowest crime rate. 40% below levels predicted by the previous behaviour of the series. There were 255,000 less crimes in Merseyside from 1988 to 1992 than would have been expected had Merseyside continued to follow the national crime trend. Home Office figures indicate savings to Merseyside could exceed £1250 million for the five year period. Demographic changes, economic variables, police practice, and other factors could not account for the changes.