The Calibration Barrier in Consciousness Science: A Formal Research Strategy for the Hard Problem
Kwan Hong Tan
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) October 21, 2026 preprint DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23524880 (opens in new tab)
Study at a glance
AI-extracted from the abstract| Characteristics | Theoretical or philosophical paper |
|---|---|
| Topics | Philosophy of mind |
| Key points | Argues that high accuracy in predicting reports does not by itself identify a psychophysical bridge, and proposes a calibration audit with confidence sets to constrain such laws. Synthetic benchmarks show that a plug-in likelihood comparison selected the wrong bridge in all 500 replicates in a weak combined-failure setting, while a correctly bounded audit retained both candidates at the cost of leaving some valid weak-signal cases unresolved. |
Abstract
The hard problem asks why physical processes are accompanied by experience. This paper develops a calibration audit for a prior evidential question: whether observations identify a psychophysical correspondence. Reference-relative hypotheses are separated from conventional relabellings. Finite reconstruction results characterize bridge ambiguity, and joint channel transformations show why accurate report prediction can leave it unresolved. Many-to-one bridges are treated through exact and approximate aggregation. Confidence sets propagate sampling error, dependence within independent blocks, episode selection, and noisy physical-state recognition. An exact synthetic benchmark separates approximately 90 percent report accuracy from bridge identification. A comparative benchmark adds weak predictive separation, correlated reports, selection, and channel misspecification across 12000 further replicates. In its weak combined-failure setting at the largest sample size, a plug-in likelihood comparison selects the wrong bridge in all 500 replicates; a correctly bounded audit retains both candidates. That protection has a cost: conservative bounds also leave some valid weak-signal cases unresolved. All procedures can select the wrong bridge under systematically inverted reference labels. The audit is an application of established identification and robust-inference principles, with usefulness demonstrated conditionally in synthetic models. A proposed motion protocol distinguishes reference consistency, operational accuracy, and intrinsic phenomenal identity. No human validation is claimed. Calibration can constrain psychophysical laws; it cannot choose between observationally equivalent metaphysical interpretations or explain why experience exists.
Comparable studies
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| From dopamine to salience to psychosis--linking biology, pharmacology and phenomenology of psychosis. | 2005 | Theoretical or philosophical paper | |
| How do the brain's time and space mediate consciousness and its different dimensions? Temporo-spatial theory of consciousness (TTC). | 2017 | Theoretical or philosophical paper | |
| The phenomenology of deep brain stimulation-induced changes in OCD: an enactive affordance-based model. | 2013 | Theoretical or philosophical paper | |
| Looking for the Self: Phenomenology, Neurophysiology and Philosophical Significance of Drug-induced Ego Dissolution | 2017 | Theoretical or philosophical paper |