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Prediction Without Generalization: A Reanalysis of EEG Dream Recall Models in the DREAM Database

Mehdi Belafekir

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) June 8, 2026 DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20597471 (opens in new tab) via OpenAlex

Summary

AI-generated from the abstract

Across 6 datasets, 148 subjects, and 1,267 awakenings, 52 validation analyses found no evidence of above-chance generalization after bootstrap testing. Dataset identity accounted for 74.5% of predictive variance, indicating that models did not transfer across datasets. All code and data are publicly available.

Study at a glance

Characteristics Validation analyses Peer reviewed
Sample size 148
Population Subjects in sleep and wakefulness research
Keywords Recall Generalization Dream Variance accounting Code set theory
Key finding No dataset-stage combination showed evidence of above-chance generalization after bootstrap testing, and dataset identity dominated predictive variance (74.5%).

Abstract

52 validation analyses across 6 datasets, 148 subjects, and 1,267 awakenings. No dataset-stage combination showed evidence of above-chance generalization after bootstrap testing. Dataset identity dominates predictive variance (74.5%). All code and data publicly available.

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