Use of Staging Models for Treatment-Resistant Depression Is Not Helpful in Predicting Nonresponse to Acute Intravenous Ketamine Treatment

Abstract Background Some staging models for treatment-resistant depression (TRD) have been developed in the attempt to predict treatment outcome, in particular with electroconvulsive therapy. However, these models have not been tested in predicting clinical outcome of ketamine treatment. We assessed the relationship between patients' classification with different TRD staging models and subsequent nonresponse to acute intravenous ketamine treatment.

Methods: A sample of 120 patients with TRD who received acute ketamine treatment from October 2018 to November 2020 were included. Intravenous ketamine was administered twice weekly for 3 weeks as acute treatment. Generalized linear models were fitted to examine if staging classification at baseline could predict percent change in the 16-item Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology-Self Report (QIDS-SR16) scale. Potential confounders such as age, sex, and primary diagnosis were included in the models. Other generalized linear models were also fitted with the Bonferroni correction to investigate if other clinical variables of potential relevance could predict percent change in the QIDS-SR16.

Results: No TRD staging model proved accurate in predicting depressive improvement after acute ketamine treatment. Clinical variables such as age (F = 6.68, P = 0.01) and history of neuromodulation therapy (F = 5.12, P = 0.03) were negatively associated with subsequent percent improvement in the QIDS-SR16 with acute ketamine treatment.

Conclusions: The efficacy of acute intravenous ketamine treatment was similar in subjects with higher and lower level of treatment resistance, using definitions based on different TRD staging models. Further exploration of ketamine treatment predictors such as age and neuromodulation therapy is warranted.