"BaZi Birth-Chart Favorability and Psychological Growth Following Ayahuasca Ceremonies: A Pre-Registered Retrospective Correlational Study

Abstract

# OSF Pre-Registration ## Title BaZi Birth-Chart Favorability and Psychological Growth Following Ayahuasca Ceremonies: A Pre-Registered Retrospective Correlational Study ## Description Stanislav Grof has long argued that the moment of an individual's birth, read through a symbolic system tied to that moment, is predictive of the character and outcome of non-ordinary states of consciousness -- a claim that, to the authors' knowledge, has never been tested against standardized outcome data under pre-specified, blinded conditions. This study tests an operationalized version of that general claim using the Chinese BaZi (Four Pillars of Destiny) system rather than Western transit astrology. BaZi computes a fixed "chart" from an individual's exact birth date, time, and location; this study applies a pre-registered, fixed rule (detailed below) to determine, for each ceremony a subject attended, whether the ceremony's date and hour stand in a favorable, neutral, or unfavorable elemental relationship to that subject's own chart. These per-ceremony classifications are then averaged into a single continuous score per subject (a "BaZi Favorability Score," range -1 to +1) and tested for correlation with the subject's psychological growth during their stay, measured by the NETI (Nondual Embodiment Thematic Inventory) instrument already in routine use at Paojilhuasca, an Amazonian plant medicine center in Iquitos, Peru, where the authors have facilitated over 500 ayahuasca ceremonies over six years. The purpose of the study is narrowly empirical: to find out whether this specific, falsifiable prediction holds, using real prospective and retrospective outcome data from a population that has actually undergone the ceremonies in question -- something the original hypothesis has never had the chance to be tested against. The authors do not have a stake in which way the result goes. If the BaZi Favorability Score shows no meaningful correlation with NETI growth, that null result will be reported and published exactly as prepared here, alongside a positive or mixed result. The study's methodological contribution is arguably as important as its substantive one: providing the first blinded, pre-registered test design for a category of hypothesis (birth-timing symbolic prediction of altered-state outcomes) that has so far only been supported by retrospective, non-blinded anecdote. Two features of the design are worth flagging for readers up front. First, the elemental relationship-to-outcome mapping used in the classification rule (which relations count as favorable, neutral, or unfavorable) is an original operationalization by the authors, informed by BaZi tradition at the level of general principle (生克, generation-control; 冲刑, clash-punishment) rather than a verbatim citation from any specific, independently verified classical edition -- the authors did not have access to an edition they could cite chapter-and-verse with confidence, and chose to state general principles rather than risk a misattributed quotation. Second, because the NETI outcome is measured once per stay (pre-retreat and post-retreat) rather than once per ceremony, the unit of analysis is the subject, not the ceremony: each subject's ceremonies (computed from their retreat start date and length of stay) are averaged into one BaZi Favorability Score, avoiding pseudoreplication that would result from attaching the same outcome value to multiple ceremony-level rows. Expected outcomes: a peer-reviewable manuscript reporting the primary correlational test (BaZi Favorability Score vs. NETI growth) regardless of direction or significance, plus exploratory analyses of the hour-level clash/punishment component considered separately. The classification script and de-identified analysis data will be made available alongside publication. ## Authors Fabrizio Beverina, Paojilhuasca Amazonian Medicine Center, Iquitos, Peru ## Background and Rationale Stanislav Grof has argued that the timing of an individual's birth, analyzed through symbolic systems tied to the moment of birth, may be predictive of the character and outcome of non-ordinary states of consciousness. This specific claim (transit/timing-based prediction of psychedelic ceremony outcomes) has, to the authors' knowledge, never been tested against standardized outcome data under pre-specified, blinded conditions. This study operationalizes the general hypothesis using the Chinese BaZi (Four Pillars) system rather than Western transit astrology, applying a fixed classification rule (below) informed by the generation-control (生克) and clash-punishment (冲刑) principles of the BaZi tradition. This is an original operationalization by the author, not a claim that any classical text prescribes this exact scoring scheme. ## Primary Hypothesis NOTE: NETI is measured once per stay (pre-retreat, post-retreat), not per ceremony. Using ceremony as the unit of observation with the same (duplicated) outcome value across a subject's multiple ceremonies would be pseudoreplication. The design therefore uses ONE row per subject: each subject's ceremonies (2 per week of stay) are converted to a numeric score (FAVOREVOLE = +1, NEUTRO = 0, SFAVOREVOLE = -1) and averaged into a single per-subject BaZi Favorability Score. H1: Subjects' BaZi Favorability Score (continuous, range -1 to +1) is positively correlated with NETI growth score (post-ceremony minus pre-ceremony). H0: There is no association between BaZi Favorability Score and NETI growth score. This is the single primary, confirmatory hypothesis, tested with a simple linear regression (or Pearson/Spearman correlation) of NETI growth on BaZi Favorability Score. All other analyses (e.g., examining the hour-level clash/punishment flag separately, non-linear relationships, subgroup analyses) are EXPLORATORY and will be reported and labeled as such. ## Study Design Retrospective, blinded, rule-based classification of existing participants. Not an experimental manipulation: no participant's ceremony date or time is altered for research purposes. The classification is applied to ceremonies that already occurred (or, for prospective participants, scheduled ceremonies unrelated to this study). ## Sample Approximately 150 past and current Paojilhuasca guests who have both (a) completed a NETI assessment before and after their ceremony stay, and (b) voluntarily provided birth date, time, and place via a dedicated consent form. Guests who decline are excluded; no identifying data is used without consent. ## Variables **Predictor (independent variable):** BaZi Favorability Score — a continuous per-subject score (range -1 to +1), computed as the average of FAVOREVOLE(+1)/NEUTRO(0)/SFAVOREVOLE(-1) across all of a subject's ceremonies (2 per week of stay). Each ceremony's classification is computed by the fixed rule below from the subject's Day Master (BaZi Day Pillar Heavenly Stem, computed from birth date/time/place, true-solar-time corrected) and the ceremony's Day Pillar and Hour Branch (fixed at 19:00 local, Dog branch 戌, Iquitos). **Outcome (dependent variable):** NETI score change (post minus pre), the instrument already in standard use at Paojilhuasca. **Classification rule (fixed prior to any outcome data being consulted):** *Day level* — relation between the ceremony day's Heavenly Stem element and the subject's Day Master element, per the 生克 (generation-control) principle: - Generation (生, ceremony element generates the Day Master) → FAVOREVOLE - Control (克, ceremony element controls the Day Master) → SFAVOREVOLE - Same element (同) or no direct relation → NEUTRO *Hour level* — relation between the ceremony hour's Earthly Branch (Dog, 戌, true-solar-time corrected) and the subject's birth-year Earthly Branch, per the 冲刑 (clash-punishment) principle, using the six fixed Clash pairs and four fixed Punishment groups of the BaZi tradition: - Clash (冲) → overrides day-level result, forces SFAVOREVOLE - Punishment (刑) → weakens FAVOREVOLE down to NEUTRO; NEUTRO and SFAVOREVOLE are unchanged (§8.1: a 4th "FAVOREVOLE CON RISERVA" tier was considered and folded into NEUTRO to avoid a small, low-power final cell in the primary analysis; the punishment flag is retained as a separate exploratory variable) - Neither → day-level result stands unchanged Harmony (合) is not used at either level (a scope decision, not an omission by oversight: the rule is oriented toward risk/conflict indicators, not toward union indicators). For participants where more than one ceremony occurred (2 ceremonies per week of stay, Tuesday and Friday), the per-subject BaZi Favorability Score (defined above) averages across all ceremonies of that stay, giving one predictor value per subject -- matching the one-per-stay granularity of the NETI outcome. ## Blinding Procedure The classification script (`bazi_classifier.py`) takes only birth data and ceremony date/time as input. It has no access to NETI scores or any other outcome data at any point. Classification output and outcome data will be stored in separate files and merged only once, by [name a second person or a fixed automated procedure] after classification is finalized and this pre-registration is timestamped. ## Sample Size / Power [TO DECIDE before submission: with an expected small-to-moderate effect size and roughly 150 subjects split across 3-4 classification categories, run a power calculation (e.g. G*Power, one-way ANOVA or regression) to confirm the primary comparison is adequately powered before finalizing.] ## Analysis Plan Primary analysis: linear regression (or Pearson/Spearman correlation) of NETI growth score on the per-subject BaZi Favorability Score, controlling for [list confounders to be fixed now: season of stay, facilitator/maestro present, group composition, dosage protocol — any variable that could correlate with both the calendar date and the outcome]. One row per subject; no repeated-measures/mixed-effects model is needed